Ordering should be reversed, so that OMI(PC2) is analogous to RMM(PC1) and -OMI(PC1) is analogous to RMM (PC2).ĭaily MJO index time series from 1979 Index NOTE: When comparing OMI directly with RMM, to obtain the proper phase the sign of OMI PC1 and the PC The previous (1979-2021) version of OMI can be obtained here. The EOFs used are still from 1979-2012 (see below). In some cases this may also result in a phase difference (by one phase) from the previous Version since the sample used for the 20-96 day filter is longer (1979-2021), resulting in slightly different values for theįiltered OLR used to calculate OMI. These PC amplitudes will differ slightly from the previous NOTE: OMI has been updated through December 31 2022. The links and descriptions are below as well as links to some other MJO timeseries created at other institutions.Ī description of the timeseries format is available. PSL is creating a set of MJO timeseries that quantify current and historic MJO activity. Drought could add to anti-incumbency sentiment.Daily Timeseries | Composite Maps | Animations | ASCII EOF's | Other MJO Indices and Information Good rainfall will lift farmers' incomes and help to keep a check on inflation. Several northern and central states are holding assembly elections ahead of a general election due in mid-2024. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost a key state election last week. Modi remains popular nine years since he came to power but opinion polls suggest rising inflation and unemployment threaten to erode his approval rating. WHY IS THE MONSOON IMPORTANT FOR PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI AHEAD OF A 2024 GENERAL ELECTION? India received normal or above normal rainfall for the four straight years, still prices of cereals, dairy products and pulses have jumped in recent months and forced the Reserve Bank of India to increase lending rates sharply.īelow normal rainfall could further stoke food inflation. HOW DOES THE MONSOON AFFECT INFLATION AND CENTRAL BANK POLICY?įood accounts for nearly half of India's consumer price index, which the central bank closely monitors while deciding on monetary policy. In 2009, poor rains forced India to import sugar, driving global prices to record highs. Conversely, drought requires importing food and maintaining export restrictions. Increased agricultural production could also ease export restrictions on sugar, wheat, and rice. However, a contrasting trend has emerged in the last four El Nino years, with India consistently facing drought conditions and rainfall falling below 90% of the long period average. Over the past seven decades, the El Nino weather pattern occurred 15 times, with India experiencing normal or above-normal rainfall in six instances. The correlation between El Nino and Indian monsoon rainfall is significant, despite occasional instances when India gets normal or above-normal rain during El Nino years. HOW CLOSE IS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO AND MONSOON RAIN? As a result, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El Nino years. The warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. WHAT IS EL NINO? HOW DOES IT AFFECT INDIA'S MONSOON?Įl Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal. In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe drought that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some food grains. However, a 90% likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern developing during the June-September monsoon season raises the possibility of less than normal rain. MUMBAI, May 16 (Reuters) - India's weather office has forecast normal monsoon rainfall in 2023.
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